فيروس COVID-19 وأزمة العمل الدولية – (الآثار والإجراءات الوقائية)

– تحولت الأزمة التي أحدثها فيروس كورونا COVID-19 إلى صدمة اقتصادية لسوق العمل، لم يقتصر تأثيرها على العرض (إنتاج السلع والخدمات) بل تجاوزه في التأثير على الطلب (الاستهلاك والاستثمار)؛ مما جعل الشركات على اختلاف أحجامها في مواجهة مباشرة مع تهديدات خطيرة، تتمثل بانخفاضات كبيرة في الإيرادات، وحالات من الإعسار المالي، وفقدان الكثير من الوظائف في قطاعات مختلفة.

في ظل تفشي هذا الوباء الخطير، فقد يعاني سوق العمل من أزمة خانقة وخاصة في ظل حظر السفر، وإغلاق الحدود، وتدابير الحجر الصحي. حيث لم يعدّ بإمكان العمال الانتقال إلى أماكن عملهم؛ مما يجبرهم ذلك على ترك وظائفهم وأعمالهم قسراً، وخاصة أولئك الذين يعملون بشكل جزئي أو يمارسون أعمال عرضية؛ الأمر الذي يؤثر سلباً على دخلهم وعلى مستويات معيشتهم.

إن الأزمة الاقتصادية وأزمة الوظائف التي أحدثها انتشار وباء كورونا COVID-19يمكن أن تؤدي إلى زيادة أعداد العاطلين عن العمل في العالم بنحو 25 مليون شخص، وفقاً لتقييم جديد أجرته منظمة العمل الدولي تزامن مع تفشي الوباء عالمياً.

  • فيروس كورونا وارتفاع معدلات البطالة عالمياً

تشير تقديرات منظمة العمل الدولية إلى ارتفاع معدلات البطالة العالمية بأرقام تتراوح بين 5.3 مليون (السيناريو “المتفائل”) و24.7 مليون (السيناريو “المتشائم”)، وذلك زيادة على عدد العاطلين عن العمل في عام 2019 وعددهم 188 مليوناً. وللمقارنة، أدت الأزمة المالية العالمية 2008-2009 إلى زيادة البطالة في العالم بمقدار 22 مليون شخص.  كما يُتوقع أن تشهد العمالة الناقصة (البطالة المقنعة) زيادة كبيرة، حيث تترجم العواقب الاقتصادية لتفشي الفيروس إلى تخفيضات في ساعات العمل وفي الأجور وقد ينتهي الأمر إلى الاستغناء عن أعداد كبيرة من العمالة.

إن الأعمال الحرة في البلدان النامية، التي تعمل في كثير من الأحيان على تخفيف الأثر السلبي للتغيرات الاقتصادية، قد لا تنجح هذه المرة في تحقيق ذلك؛ بسبب القيود المفروضة على حركة الأشخاص (مثل مقدمي السلع و الخدمات) بالإضافة إلى ضعف النقابات العمالية وعدم قدرتها الدفاع عن حقوق العمال أمام أصحاب العمل في ظل هكذا أزمات

كما أن تراجع التوظيف يعني أيضاً خسائر كبيرة في دخل العاملين. وتشير التقديرات الصادرة عن منظمة العمل الدولية بأنه سيكون هناك خسائر بين 860 مليار دولار أمريكي و3.4 تريليون دولار مع نهاية عام 2020. وسيترجم هذا إلى انخفاض في استهلاك السلع والخدمات، وهذا بدوره يؤثر على آفاق قطاع الأعمال وعلى الاقتصادات وحدوث ركود اقتصادي عالمي شبيه بما حدث في الأزمة الاقتصادية عام 1929.                                                     .

ومن المتوقع أن يزداد عدد العاملين الفقراء زيادة كبيرة أيضاً، لأن الضغوط على الدخل بسبب تراجع النشاط الاقتصادي ستترك أثراً مدمراً على العمال الذين يعيشون عند خط الفقر أو تحته وتقدر منظمة العمل الدولية أن ما بين 8.8 مليون و35 مليون شخص إضافي من العاملين في العالم سيعيشون في فقر، مقارنة بالتقدير الأصلي لعام 2020 (وهو 14 مليوناً في جميع أنحاء العالم).

  • دول العالم مهددة بركود اقتصادي عالمي إذا لم تقف في جبهة واحدة بوجه الأزمة

على ما يبدو أن أزمة كورونا ليست مجرد أزمة وباء عالمية فقط، بل أيضاً أزمة اقتصادية لن تبق ولن تذر إذ لم تتخذ إجراءات عالمية موحدة مدفوعة بعزيمة وإرادة صلبتين. وعلى العالم أن يستفيد من تجربته في التصدي للأزمة المالية عام 2008-2009 حيث وقف في صف واحد للتخفيف من عواقب الأزمة المالية العالمية، وتم تجنب الأسوأ.

ويحذر الكثير من الخبراء الاقتصاديين من أن بعض الفئات ستتأثر بأزمة الوظائف أكثر بكثير من فئات أخرى، مما يفاقم عدم المساواة. ومن هذه الفئات العاملون في وظائف أقل حماية وأدنى أجراً، ولا سيما الشباب والعاملين الأكبر سناً. والنساء واللاجئين أيضاً. فهاتان الفئتان مهددتان بسبب ضعف الحماية والحقوق الاجتماعية، وبسبب زيادة النساء بنسب كبيرة في الوظائف متدنية الأجر وفي القطاعات المتضررة.

ويمكن أن تتمثل تلك الاستجابة بتدابير اقتصادية واجتماعية متنوعة يمكن أن تشمل توسيع الحماية الاجتماعية، ودعم بقاء العاملين في وظائفهم (عن طريق الدوام لوقت قصير، والإجازات مدفوعة الأجر، وغيرها من الإعانات)، والإعفاءات المالية والضريبية، بما فيها للمنشآت متناهية الصغر والمنشآت الصغيرة والمتوسطة على أن يترافق ذلك القيام بحزمة من الإجراءات على صعيد السياسة المالية والنقدية، والإقراض والدعم المالي لقطاعات اقتصادية وخاصة تلك الأكثر تضرراً من ويلات الوباء.

 

عن د.معروف الخلف

أكاديمي وباحث في الاقتصاد، مدرس في عدد من الجامعات السورية.

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